World Cup 2026 Group E: Germany lead, but the model backs Ecuador over the AFCON champions for second

Group E is a study in contrasts: a European heavyweight, a South American side built on the meanest defence in qualifying, the reigning African champions, and the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup. Germany should win it, but the race behind them is where the model makes its most interesting call.

Germany: the favourites, with a Musiala-sized question

Julian Nagelsmann's side eased through qualifying (five wins from six) and arrive as one of the tournament's outright contenders, with Florian Wirtz pulling the strings, Deniz Undav — the Bundesliga's top scorer in 2025-26 — leading the line, and 40-year-old Manuel Neuer recalled in goal behind captain Joshua Kimmich. The cloud is Jamal Musiala: he broke his leg and dislocated an ankle at the Club World Cup and has been easing back from the bench. A fully fit Musiala makes Germany a genuine title threat; a half-fit one leaves them leaning on Wirtz to carry the creative load. Either way, our model has them comfortably first in Group E.

Ecuador: the model's pick for second

This is the call worth pausing on. Ecuador finished second in South American qualifying — above Brazil, Uruguay and Colombia — and did it with the best defence of anyone in CONMEBOL: just five goals conceded in eighteen games. Sebastián Beccacece's side is young but hardened, built around Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea's nine-figure midfield engine) and the 19-year-old prodigy Kendry Páez, with Willian Pacho marshalling that miserly back line. Our model makes Ecuador the clear second favourite to advance — and the live table above shows why a side this defensively sound is the safer bet for the runner-up spot than the more glamorous name below them.

Ivory Coast: the AFCON champions chasing a best-third spot

The Elephants arrive as the reigning African champions — they won AFCON 2023 on home soil, beating Nigeria in the final — and carry the highest squad value of any African team here (€515m+), with captain Franck Kessié, Manchester United's in-form Amad Diallo and 22-year-old Sporting centre-back Ousmane Diomande. On paper they are a match for Ecuador. But our model rates them a notch behind for second, more likely to be scrapping for one of the eight best-third places than topping the chasing pack. The Ivory Coast vs Ecuador opener (14 June) may set the tone for the whole group.

Curaçao: the smallest nation ever at a World Cup

With a population of around 150,000, Curaçao are the smallest nation ever to reach a men's World Cup — a genuine fairytale. Realistically they are here to enjoy it; the model gives them an outside, best-third-only chance, and even that would be historic.

The fixtures that decide it

- Ivory Coast vs Ecuador (14 June, Philadelphia) — the de facto play-in for second, on day one. - Germany vs Ivory Coast (20 June, Toronto) — the Elephants' shot at a statement scalp. - Ecuador vs Germany (25 June, New York/New Jersey) — likely with seeding, not survival, on the line for both.

The verdict

Germany to win the group, fitness permitting. Ecuador to take second, narrowly, on the strength of the tournament's quietest elite defence — with the AFCON champions a real threat to flip it. Watch the opener: Ivory Coast vs Ecuador could decide the whole thing before Germany have even broken sweat.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic — see the methodology for how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: Ivory Coast vs Ecuador, Germany vs Curaçao, Germany vs Ivory Coast, Ecuador vs Curaçao, Curaçao vs Ivory Coast, Ecuador vs Germany.