The road to the cup
GB 1–2 AR
— 37%⏳
FR vs GB— FR 37%50,000 simulations · Elo + Poisson model · Last run today · 07/15/2026
AIThe title race
LiveThe 2026 World Cup kicks off on June 11 across the United States, Mexico and Canada — the first edition with 48 teams and 104 matches. Our AI model frames a tight race at the top: Spain lead the field at 55.2%, narrowly ahead of Argentina at 44.8%, with Algeria (0.0%), Australia (0.0%) and Austria (0.0%) completing the top five. No single side dominates the projection.
Paths to the Final
Each row is a top contender. Read left to right — the percentage is our model's chance they reach that round. It shrinks as the road gets harder; the gold cell is their chance to win the whole thing.
SpainArgentina
Algeria
Australia
Austria
BelgiumThe Contenders
Eleven sides our model gives a real shot.
Use the model view to compare bracket paths, form and matchup strength before the tournament moves.
Deep reads from the model
In-depth, data-driven analysis — updated through the tournament.
AnalysisEngland vs Argentina Prediction: World Cup 2026 Semifinal
The rivalry returns after 21 years: Messi's first-ever match against England, Kane and Bellingham's record-breaking partnership, and a semifinal our model calls 52.6–47.4 — the football history behind the numbers.
France vs Spain Prediction: World Cup 2026 Semifinal Preview
Norway vs England: The 23% Team Is Trying to Do It Again
Spain vs Belgium: 609 Minutes Without Conceding — Can Anyone Break the Zero?
France vs Morocco, the sequel: why nobody laughs at 21% anymore
The Long Shots
Below 1% to win — but football is football.
How the model works
Each team carries an Elo rating anchored to international results since 2018. Match outcomes are sampled from a Poisson distribution with rates derived from the Elo gap. The full bracket is run 50,000 times. Hosts get a +75 Elo home bump. Ratings update Bayesian-style after every real match.
Anchored to international results 2018-2026. Hosts get +75 home buff.
ρ = -0.13 correction for low-score correlation. Vanilla Poisson is wrong about 0-0 and 1-1.
Full 48-team bracket simulated end-to-end. Frequency = probability.