World Cup 2026 Group G: Belgium's golden-generation farewell, and the model's pick of Iran over Salah's Egypt for second

Group G has the feel of a changing of the guard. Belgium's golden generation takes what is almost certainly its final World Cup bow; behind them, an underrated Asian side and a 33-year-old Egyptian icon chasing history fight for the other ticket out.

Belgium: the golden generation's last stand

Under Rudi Garcia, Belgium are favourites to win the group — but this is the end of an era. Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Thibaut Courtois and Axel Witsel are the last men standing from the side that finished third in 2018, and De Bruyne and Lukaku both made the squad carrying injuries. The future is Jeremy Doku's pace and Leandro Trossard's movement, but the question is whether the old guard has one more deep run in it. Our model still has Belgium comfortably first; the doubt is how far they go after that.

Iran: the model's quiet pick for second

Here is the call no one else is making. Iran ground through Asian qualifying behind the goals of Mehdi Taremi (ten in fifteen qualifiers), heading to a third straight World Cup under Amir Ghalenoei — and our model makes them the clear second favourite to advance, ahead of a more famous name. Team Melli are organised, hard to break down and dangerous on the counter; they have made the group stage their ceiling before, but in a 48-team format that's finally enough to go through. The live table above backs them over Egypt.

Egypt: Salah chasing history

Mohamed Salah, now 33 and captaining the side, is on what is almost certainly his last World Cup, and he is chasing something Egypt have never done: reach a World Cup quarter-final. He has Manchester City's Omar Marmoush alongside him, which gives Egypt as much attacking star power as anyone in the group. Our model has them third — very much alive for a best-third place, but needing Salah to drag them past Iran. The Egypt vs Iran finale (26 June) could be a straight shoot-out for second.

New Zealand: Chris Wood's farewell

The All Whites are led by Chris Wood, 34, their all-time top scorer, almost certainly at his final World Cup after a hat-trick in a 7-0 qualifying rout of Fiji. Realistically they are the group's outsiders, but a Wood goal and a low block could make life awkward for someone.

The fixtures that decide it

- Belgium vs Egypt (15 June, Seattle) — a heavyweight opener that could shape who finishes where. - Belgium vs Iran (21 June) — the group winner's biggest test. - Egypt vs Iran (26 June, Seattle) — very possibly the de facto play-in for second.

The verdict

Belgium to win the group in the golden generation's farewell. Iran to edge Egypt for second — the model rates their organisation over Egypt's star power — but Salah at a last World Cup is exactly the kind of variable a model struggles to price. The Egypt vs Iran finale is the one to circle.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic — see the methodology for how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: Belgium vs Egypt, Iran vs New Zealand, Belgium vs Iran, New Zealand vs Egypt, Egypt vs Iran, New Zealand vs Belgium.