World Cup 2026 Group I: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq — the toughest race for second place

Group I might be the most top-heavy group at the 2026 World Cup. France, the 2018 champions and a perennial title contender, are overwhelming favourites to win it. The interesting question is not who finishes first — it is who finishes second, because behind France sit three teams with a genuine case for the runner-up spot. That race is where the group's best subplot lives.

France: winning the group is the floor

France arrive with an almost unfair attacking pool — Kylian Mbappé, the reigning Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembélé, and a 2026 Ballon d'Or contender in Michael Olise all in the same squad. Our model rates them a genuine top-tier title contender, so topping Group I is the floor of their ambitions, not the ceiling. The only realistic threat to first place is complacency.

Senegal: the model's pick for second

Senegal are the continent's deepest squad and they show it here. Sadio Mané remains the unquestioned leader; Kalidou Koulibaly marshals the defence; Idrissa Gana Gueye and Pape Matar Sarr run the midfield; and Nicolas Jackson, who spent 2025-26 on loan at Bayern Munich, leads the line. Under new coach Pape Thiaw, our 10,000-simulation model makes Senegal the clear second favourite to advance from Group I. The live title-odds table above shows how the four sides stack up.

Norway: the wildcard nobody wants to draw

Here is one of the great stories of the tournament: Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard at a World Cup at last. Norway have not appeared at one since 1998, which means the most destructive striker on the planet has never graced this stage. If Haaland is at his ruthless best, Norway can absolutely take second — our model has them just behind Senegal, close enough that it is effectively a coin-flip. You lean Senegal for squad depth; you respect Norway because one Haaland hat-trick rewrites the table.

Iraq: the outsider with a puncher's chance

Iraq ground their way through the Asian qualifiers and arrive as the group's outsider. Realistically they are playing for pride and a famous result — but the 48-team format is kinder than it used to be: even a third-place finish can mean survival if they steal points. That makes their fixtures live right to the end.

The fixtures that decide it

- France vs Senegal (16 June, New York/New Jersey) sets the tone — a statement game for second place. - Norway vs Senegal (22 June) may be the de facto play-in for the runner-up spot. - Senegal vs Iraq (26 June, Toronto) is the likely seeding decider — the match where Senegal either lock down second or end up sweating the best-third maths.

The verdict

France to win the group comfortably. Senegal to take second by a nose from Norway — the model and the squad depth both point the same way. But Group I is the one place at this World Cup where a single Haaland performance could turn the whole script on its head. Watch the second-place race; it is better than the group win.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic — see the methodology for how the probabilities are built.