Accountability
Prediction vs reality
Every call our model makes, scored against what actually happened. Probabilities are locked before kickoff — ratings don't re-fit mid-tournament, so nothing here is touched up after the fact. Misses stay on the board.
3/4
correct picks
75%
0.122
avg RPS (↓ better)
coin-flip ≈ 0.236
4
matches
/ 104
The calls so far
Open calls — on the record before kickoff
These are live model probabilities for upcoming matches. They'll be scored here the moment each match ends.
- Jun 13, 07:00 PM UTC
Qatar vs Switzerland
Model's pick: Switzerland 62%14/24/62 - Jun 13, 10:00 PM UTC
Brazil vs Morocco
Model's pick: Brazil 45%45/28/27 - Jun 14, 01:00 AM UTC
Haiti vs Scotland
Model's pick: Scotland 51%22/27/51 - Jun 14, 04:00 AM UTC
Australia vs Turkey
Model's pick: Australia 40%40/29/31 - Jun 14, 05:00 PM UTC
Germany vs Curaçao
Model's pick: Germany 80%80/16/4 - Jun 14, 08:00 PM UTC
Netherlands vs Japan
Model's pick: Netherlands 44%44/29/28 - Jun 14, 11:00 PM UTC
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
Model's pick: Ecuador 47%25/28/47 - Jun 15, 02:00 AM UTC
Sweden vs Tunisia
Model's pick: Sweden 44%44/28/28
Want to check the maths? The core model is open source — run the backtest yourself.