World Cup 2026 Group B: Switzerland the grown-ups, but the model fancies the hosts over Dzeko

Group B is the tournament's quiet banana skin. You've got a hardened European side that qualifies in its sleep, a co-host carrying the best squad in its history, a 40-year-old legend on one final lap, and the reigning kings of Asia. Switzerland should top it. The argument worth having is who goes through with them, and the model lands somewhere that'll irritate a few neutrals.

## Switzerland: the eternal over-performers, still purring Murat Yakin's Switzerland are the nearest thing this group has to a sure thing. They went through UEFA qualifying unbeaten, four wins and two draws, 14 scored and two conceded, including a 2-0 in Sweden and a 3-0 over Slovenia. This is the side that knocked the holders Italy out of Euro 2024 in the last 16 and only lost to England on penalties in the quarters. Granit Xhaka, 33 and heading to a fourth World Cup, runs the show from deep; Manuel Akanji and Ricardo Rodriguez anchor a back line that barely creaks. The one question mark hangs over the goalkeeper. Yann Sommer has retired from international duty, so Dortmund's Gregor Kobel takes the gloves into a major tournament cold. Breel Embolo leads the line, Dan Ndoye and Ruben Vargas stretch teams from wide. Most of this group were in Qatar. They know exactly what a World Cup demands, and they rarely beat themselves.

## Canada: the model's pick for second, and the case is sturdier than the name recognition Here's the call to sit with. The marquee name in the chasing pack is Bosnia's Edin Dzeko, yet the model nudges the co-hosts ahead of him as the second favourite to go through, and the football is on its side. Canada reached the Copa America semi-final in 2024, beating serious South American sides before Messi and Julian Alvarez saw them off in a 2-0 defeat to Argentina. That remains the most credible tournament run anyone below Switzerland in this group can wave around. Jesse Marsch has built a hard-pressing, front-foot team around Jonathan David, now at Juventus, and Tajon Buchanan, and two of their three games are at BC Place in Vancouver with a full house behind them. The asterisk is Alphonso Davies. A hamstring suffered in Bayern's Champions League semi-final against PSG has ruled the captain out of the opener; Marsch has already said he'll be back for the Qatar and Switzerland fixtures. Even a Davies who arrives mid-tournament is the difference between a good Canada side and a dangerous one, and this is the deepest roster the country has ever assembled.

## Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dzeko's last dance, on borrowed legs Romance dragged them this far. Bosnia reached only their second World Cup the brutal way, beating Wales on penalties in Cardiff before stunning Italy 4-1 in a shootout in Zenica to bury the four-time champions yet again. Edin Dzeko, 40 and back in Germany with Schalke, is still the man everything runs through: 146 caps, 73 goals, the last survivor of the golden generation now that Miralem Pjanic has hung up his boots. Sergej Barbarez has them organised and awkward to play. But the legs have gone, and the goals lean almost entirely on a striker old enough for a bus pass. On a good night they can take points off anyone in this group. Asking them to manage it three times across a fortnight is where the dream runs into the arithmetic.

## Qatar: Asian champions out to bin the "host pass" jibe Qatar arrive as back-to-back Asian Cup winners, and for once they've earned the trip on the pitch rather than been handed it as hosts, grinding through the AFC fourth round to get here. Julen Lopetegui has a genuinely sharp front pair to lean on. Akram Afif racked up more assists than any other player in AFC qualifying; Almoez Ali, Qatar's all-time leading scorer, bagged 12. The trouble is everything behind them. Against European and Copa-hardened opponents the physical gap could get ugly fast, and keeping a clean sheet looks like wishful thinking.

## The fixtures that decide it - Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (12 Jun, Toronto) — the de facto play-in for second, on opening night, and Canada have to do it without Davies. - Canada vs Qatar (18 Jun, Vancouver) — the home banker. Drop points here and the maths turns nasty in a hurry. - Switzerland vs Canada (24 Jun, Vancouver) — if both win earlier, this is about seeding rather than survival, which suits everyone.

## The verdict Switzerland win the group. They're a level above the rest and far too streetwise to trip over their own feet. Canada take second: the Vancouver crowd and a returning Davies tip a tight scrap their way ahead of Dzeko's romantics, who simply can't run for two weeks the way they once could. Qatar are the most watchable on the ball and the most likely to get shoved off it. Start with the opener in Toronto, because Group B is decided that night.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic. The methodology lays out how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar vs Switzerland, Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada vs Qatar, Switzerland vs Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar.