World Cup 2026 Group K: Portugal & Colombia lead, but Uzbekistan and DR Congo carry the best stories

Group K splits cleanly in two. Portugal and Colombia are the favourites to advance; Uzbekistan and DR Congo arrive carrying two of the most romantic stories in North America. The football should follow the seeding — but the stories are why you watch.

Portugal: the group is theirs to win

Almost certainly Cristiano Ronaldo's final World Cup, wrapped around a golden generation — Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leão, Vitinha. Our model rates Portugal a strong contender and the clear favourite to win Group K. Anything less than top spot would be a surprise.

Colombia: the dark horse you should respect

Colombia are resurgent. The James Rodríguez renaissance — he led CONMEBOL qualifying with seven assists — pairs with Luis Díaz's firepower (seven goals in qualifying) to give them one of the most watchable attacks outside the title favourites. Our model makes Colombia near-certain to reach the knockouts; they are a genuine dark horse to go deeper.

Uzbekistan: a first-ever World Cup, coached by a legend

This is the headline. After joining FIFA in 1994 and seven failed attempts, Uzbekistan have qualified for the World Cup for the first time — and handed the project to Fabio Cannavaro, the 2006 World Cup-winning captain. The spine is real: Manchester City's Abdukodir Khusanov (22) anchors the defence, captain Eldor Shomurodov (five goals in qualifying) leads the line, and Abbosbek Fayzullaev supplies the creativity. Cannavaro's brief is to give a debuting nation a competitive, disciplined edge against far more storied opponents.

DR Congo: back after 52 years

The Leopards return to the World Cup for the first time since 1974, when they played as Zaire — sealed in the cruelest, most dramatic way possible, an Axel Tuanzebe header in the 100th minute of their inter-confederation playoff against Jamaica, which made them the very last of the 48 teams to qualify. Cédric Bakambu brings the big-game experience, Chancel Mbemba the leadership, Noah Sadiki the engine.

The realistic maths

For both debutants, Group K is not about beating Portugal or Colombia. It is about each other. The Uzbekistan vs DR Congo match on 27 June in Atlanta is, in all likelihood, a straight shoot-out — and quite possibly a play-in for a best-third lifeline. In a format where the eight best third-placed teams survive, our model gives both newcomers a real-but-outside chance of reaching the last 32. That is not nothing for a first-timer drawn into a tough group.

The campaigns open with Uzbekistan vs Colombia (17 June, Mexico City) — a hard first draw for the debutants, with Colombia's pace on the break the obvious danger — and Portugal vs DR Congo the same week.

The verdict

Portugal and Colombia to advance. The Uzbekistan–DR Congo meeting to decide who carries the underdog torch into a best-third push. Group K won't crown a champion, but it might just deliver the tournament's purest underdog moment.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic — see the methodology for how the probabilities are built.