M. Crocombe

New Zealand arrive at the 2026 World Cup as one of the tournament's clearest outsiders, with our AI model putting their title chances at effectively 0.0%, their odds of reaching the final at 0.0% and the semi-finals at just 0.1%. The All Whites qualified through Oceania and head to North America still chasing a piece of history: as recent headlines note, the team is searching for its first-ever victory at a World Cup finals. The recently announced squad reflects a side built on hard work and a sprinkling of players plying their trade in Europe, but expectations are realistically modest.

The attacking burden falls largely on the likes of Jaden Randall, who has chipped in with nine goals and eight assists for Auckland (7.18 rating), and Conor McCowatt, the most prolific name on the list with 11 goals and five assists at Silkeborg (7.23). Eli Just adds balance from Motherwell with seven goals and seven assists, while defender Finn de Vries is the highest-rated of the group at 7.32, contributing seven assists from the back for Auckland. It is a tidy spine, though the absence of a genuine elite-level goalscorer is the obvious concern against top opposition.

Drawn in Group G, New Zealand face a steep climb simply to reach the knockout rounds. Realistically, the milestone that matters here is that long-awaited first World Cup win rather than progression deep into the bracket. A point or a famous result would be celebrated as a triumph; anything beyond the group stage would be a genuine shock.