Mohamed Kanno

Saudi Arabia arrive at the 2026 World Cup as clear outsiders, with our AI model giving them a 0.0% chance of lifting the trophy and just a 0.3% probability of reaching the semi-finals. The Green Falcons remain one of the standout stories of Asian football after stunning Argentina in 2022, but the model is clear-eyed about the gulf in quality between them and the tournament favourites. Reaching the final is registered as effectively zero, framing this as a campaign about competitiveness rather than realistic title contention.

The squad is built around a core of domestic talent enjoying productive club seasons. Salem Al Dawsari of Al-Hilal is the marquee name, contributing eight goals and eight assists with a 7.3 rating, while Al-Qadisiyah's Musab Al Juwayr is the creative engine, posting 11 assists and a team-best 7.39 rating. Khalid Al Ghannam adds genuine threat with 13 goals and six assists for Al-Ettifaq, and Mohammed Abu Al Shamat chips in eight assists. The concern is logistical: one Saudi player was reportedly robbed in Amsterdam and may have a delayed arrival to the camp.

Drawn in Group H, Saudi Arabia face a stiff test simply to progress. Their attacking pieces give them a puncher's chance against any single opponent, as 2022 showed, but consistency over a group and then a knockout run is another matter. Realistically, escaping the group would represent a strong tournament, and the model expects their campaign to end early.