Brazil

Brazil arrive at the 2026 World Cup carrying their familiar burden of expectation, and our AI model rates the Seleção at a 9.0% chance of lifting the trophy. The projections see them reaching the semi-finals 32.9% of the time and the final in 18.3% of simulations, numbers that reflect both their attacking riches and the uncertainty hanging over the camp. With the daily routine of the squad now under intense scrutiny, the build-up has been dominated by questions about Neymar's fitness and his place in the group.

The forward line remains Brazil's calling card. Vinícius Júnior brings 16 goals and 5 assists from Real Madrid at a 7.51 rating, while Raphinha has been even more reliable for Barcelona with 13 goals, 3 assists and a 7.55 rating. Thiago has been a revelation at Brentford with a remarkable 22 goals, and the young Rayan adds 14 goals from Vasco da Gama. The clear concern is Neymar: a confirmed injury has raised the very real prospect of the CBF cutting him from the squad, a decision that would reshape the attack.

Drawn in Group C, Brazil should have the quality to advance comfortably and set up a knockout run. The talent up front gives them genuine belief, but a near one-in-three semi-final probability tempers the romance. Realistically, this is a team built to reach the latter stages, with a deep run plausible — though the title itself remains a stretch given the open field.