Group A: Mexico in their own house, and Son Heung-min's last, best shot at second

Group A is the host's gift, with a scrap going on behind it. Mexico get the opener in Mexico City, three games on home or near-home soil, and the softest top seed in the draw. Who wins the group isn't really the question. Who joins them is, and the model lands on the team most neutrals will skip past in favour of the famous European name.

## Mexico: hosts, favourites, and finally a team that fits the manager Javier Aguirre's second coming has done what his predecessors couldn't: produce an El Tri that actually looks like a team. They won the 2025 Gold Cup, edging the USA 2-1 in the final, after lifting the inaugural Nations League in March with Raul Jimenez named the standout. Back-to-back CONCACAF trophies, then, and a settled 4-3-3 that can shift into a Jimenez-Gimenez two-striker look when Aguirre wants bodies in the box. The spine is real. Edson Alvarez screens midfield off the back of his West Ham minutes, Jimenez leads the line in tidy Fulham form, and 17-year-old Gilberto Mora is already trusted to start. Guillermo Ochoa, somehow, goes to a record sixth World Cup. The March goalless draw with Portugal and 1-1 with Belgium didn't set pulses racing, but they were disciplined, which is the whole point. At the Azteca, with the crowd and the altitude doing half the marking, anything short of topping this group would be a minor scandal.

## South Korea: the model's pick for second Here's the call worth stopping on. Most will pencil in the Czechs as Mexico's challengers on European pedigree alone. The model doesn't, and the football reason is simple: Korea have more top-level players, and they are peaking at the same time. Hong Myung-bo's side were the only Asian team to clear the entire third round without losing, six wins and four draws across ten matches, finishing six points clear of Jordan in their group. Son Heung-min captains a fourth World Cup, now at LAFC but still the team's reference point. Lee Kang-in arrives off a second straight Champions League with PSG. Kim Min-jae anchors the back line from Bayern. A two-time European champion, a Bundesliga title-winner and a talisman past 130 caps in one spine is more genuine quality than anyone else chasing second can put out. Add Hwang Hee-chan's running and a side built to grind out the 1-0s that win groups, and the case makes itself. Korea are narrowly ahead, and they have earned it.

## Czech Republic: back at last, but they barely made it Don't confuse the flag with the form. Miroslav Koubek's Czechs reached their first World Cup since 2006 the hard way: second in Group L behind Croatia, who battered them 5-1 in Split, then past Ireland on penalties and a genuine shock over Denmark on penalties in the playoff final. Patrik Schick is a serious problem when fit, four goals in his first three qualifiers and a full Leverkusen season in the legs, and Tomas Soucek gives them a set-piece. But a team that needed two shootouts to get here, with no margin for error, isn't being disrespected by a third-place tag. They can nick a result, sure. Backing them ahead of Korea's star power is the braver shout, not the smarter one.

## South Africa: the romantics, with a self-inflicted wound Hugo Broos returns for one last job and a first World Cup in 16 years, built around captain-keeper Ronwen Williams and the metronomic Teboho Mokoena. The cruel footnote: South Africa were docked three points for fielding Mokoena while suspended against Lesotho, and still topped their CAF group ahead of Nigeria and Benin. A largely PSL-based squad with Burnley's Lyle Foster up top will be organised and awkward to break down. Beating this top three over three games is another matter.

## The fixtures that decide it - Mexico vs South Africa (11 Jun, Mexico City) — the tournament opener at the Azteca; back a settled Mexico to start fast. - South Korea vs Czech Republic (11 Jun, Guadalajara) — the de facto play-in for second, on day one. Win this and the runner-up race tilts your way. - Czech Republic vs Mexico (24 Jun, Mexico City) — Schick's shot at a statement scalp if the Czechs are chasing points late.

## The verdict Mexico to win the group, and comfortably: hosts, form, draw, the lot. For second, take Korea. Son, Lee Kang-in and Kim Min-jae carry more big-game pedigree than a Czech side that arrived on penalties can match, and Hong's team knows how to win ugly. The Czechs are the banana skin, South Africa are the heart, but the head wears green and red.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic. See the methodology for how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: Mexico vs South Africa, South Korea vs Czech Republic, Czech Republic vs South Africa, Mexico vs South Korea, Czech Republic vs Mexico, South Africa vs South Korea.