World Cup 2026 Group F preview: Netherlands are clear, and the model takes Japan over Sweden's all-star strikers

Group F looks tidy on paper. It isn't. The Netherlands are the heavyweight, the kind of seed you ink into the last 16 back in November. Behind them sit three teams with three very different problems: a Japan side that has quietly become one of the most balanced at the tournament, a Sweden team carrying two of the Premier League's sharpest strikers and not a great deal else, and a Tunisia who got through CAF qualifying without conceding a single goal. The Dutch should top it. Second place is where the model plants a flag, and it doesn't plant it on the famous names.

## Netherlands: favourites with a creativity problem Ronald Koeman's side went unbeaten in qualifying and arrive with the meanest spine in the group. Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven, Jurriën Timber, Nathan Aké: that is a back line you trust to fall asleep to. The worry sits higher up. Xavi Simons tore his ACL in April playing for Spurs, which removed the only natural No. 10 in the squad, so the creativity now has to come from Frenkie de Jong and Tijjani Reijnders in deeper roles. Cody Gakpo can win a knockout tie on his own and Memphis Depay, the country's all-time top scorer, still smells a goal even after a sleepy spell at Corinthians. But this is a team built to strangle games, not to dazzle. Jeremie Frimpong didn't even make the plane after an injury-wrecked season. They win the group. They might also send you to sleep doing it.

## Japan: the model's pick for second This is the call worth stopping on, because Sweden have the bigger names and Japan could not care less. Hajime Moriyasu's group is the most complete non-European side in the field: Takefusa Kubo pulling strings from the right, Ritsu Doan and Daizen Maeda attacking the channels, and Ayase Ueda, who just won the Eredivisie golden boot with 25 goals for Feyenoord, leading the line. Wataru Endo screens a midfield that actually controls matches, and Japan spent Asian qualifying taking sides apart with exactly this shape. They have been hit hard up top. Kaoru Mitoma's hamstring and Takumi Minamino's cruciate both rule out wide threats, and that thins the attack for real. The structure survives without them, and that is the point. The model makes Japan the clear pick for second, and the football reason is plain: they are a functioning team, not a functioning forward line bolted onto chaos. The live table above agrees.

## Sweden: two superstars, one wobbly team Here is the truth Swedish fans keep waltzing around. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres are two of the best centre-forwards alive, and Sweden still scraped in the back door. They didn't win their qualifying group; they didn't win a single game in it. They reached the playoffs through their Nations League ranking, then Gyökeres carried them almost on his own: a hat-trick to beat Ukraine, then an 88th-minute winner to sink Poland. That is the warning sign, not the comfort blanket. When the plan is "give it to Viktor," the midfield and defence behind him become the question, and Isak's season was wrecked by an ankle fracture in December that needed surgery. Graham Potter has tidied the mood since taking over in the winter. He has not magicked a balanced team into being. Lethal on their day, all over the place on the others.

## Tunisia: the wall that has to learn to score Tunisia did something nobody had managed: they qualified without conceding a goal, nine wins and a draw across ten CAF matches. Aymen Dahmen is a genuinely good goalkeeper and captain Ellyes Skhiri, of Eintracht Frankfurt, runs the midfield. The trouble is at the other end. Sabri Lamouchi, in charge only since the winter after a tame AFCON last-16 exit, is still hunting goals from Elias Achouri, Sébastien Tounekti and a 35-year-old Youssef Msakni. A back line this drilled can make Sweden's evening miserable. Whether it can ever actually win a match 1-0 at this level is the whole story of their tournament.

## The fixtures that decide it - Netherlands vs Japan (14 June, Dallas) — the group's heavyweight bout on day one; a Japan result rearranges the whole table. - Tunisia vs Japan (20 June, Monterrey) — Japan's banana skin against the meanest defence in the group. - Japan vs Sweden (25 June, Dallas) — in all likelihood the straight shootout for second.

## The verdict The Netherlands to top the group, fitness and a flicker of creativity permitting. Japan to take second, because a balanced team beats two brilliant strikers welded onto a shaky one far more often than it loses to them. Sweden are the banana skin and the upside bet in one body; Tunisia are the side everyone shrugs at until they've drawn 0-0 with you and you're livid. Start with the opener in Dallas.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic. See the methodology for how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: Netherlands vs Japan, Sweden vs Tunisia, Netherlands vs Sweden, Tunisia vs Japan, Japan vs Sweden, Tunisia vs Netherlands.