World Cup 2026 Group H preview: Spain are runaway favourites, and the model backs Bielsa's wall over the Saudis for second

Group H is about as soft a landing as a heavyweight can hope for. Spain, the reigning European champions, share it with a flinty Uruguay, a Saudi Arabia team that sacked its coach seven weeks before kick-off, and Cape Verde, an Atlantic archipelago of half a million making its first finals. La Roja should win this in second gear. The argument worth having is over who joins them, and the model's answer is duller than the romantics want to hear.

## Spain: the favourites, with Yamal on a leash Luis de la Fuente's side are the class of the group and it isn't close. They won Euro 2024 playing the cleanest football on the continent and lost the 2025 Nations League final to Portugal only on penalties, having led twice. The squad is a statement on its own: 26 men, and for the first time ever, not a single Real Madrid player. Dani Carvajal and Dean Huijsen missed the cut, and Euro-winning captain Alvaro Morata watches from home too. De la Fuente has depth in every line, from Pedri and Zubimendi in midfield to Nico Williams and Mikel Oyarzabal in the final third, with Rodri back in the engine room after his ACL year.

The wrinkle is Lamine Yamal. The 18-year-old has wrestled with pubalgia all season, then tweaked a hamstring against Celta in late April, and Barcelona and the federation's doctors agree he shouldn't be thrown into the first two games. Spain are deep enough that it scarcely registers here. By the time Uruguay roll around on the final day, he should be primed to hurt someone.

## Uruguay: the model's pick for second This is the call worth chewing on. Plenty will fancy Saudi Arabia's giant-killers for the runners-up berth, but the model makes Uruguay the clear second favourite, and the reason is the back four. Marcelo Bielsa's side shipped just 12 goals across 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers, and the centre-back pairing of Ronald Araujo and Jose Maria Gimenez is as nasty as anything in the tournament. They finished fourth only on goal difference, level on 28 points with both Brazil and Colombia. In a continent where Argentina aside everyone bleeds goals, that defensive discipline is the rarest currency, and Bielsa's teams are at their best on the big, edgy nights a World Cup throws up.

There are caveats, and they're real. Bielsa coaxed 39-year-old Fernando Muslera out of retirement for a record fifth World Cup, froze out record scorer Luis Suarez entirely, and that 5-1 mauling by the United States in November, Rodrigo Bentancur sent off and all, was nobody's idea of a confidence-builder. Darwin Nunez leads the line off a move to the Saudi Pro League rather than a roaring Liverpool season. But with Federico Valverde carrying midfield and that defence behind him, this is a top-eight team in waiting. Second should be theirs.

## Saudi Arabia: the giant-killers in chaos The Green Falcons arrive a mess. Herve Renard, who'd steadied them after Roberto Mancini's flop and hauled them through Asian qualifying, was sacked on 17 April after a 4-0 battering by Egypt and a 2-1 loss to Serbia. In came Georgios Donis, a former Greece winger with Premier League years at Blackburn behind him, handed barely seven weeks to stamp on anything. The core that famously beat Argentina in Qatar is still here, captain Salem Al-Dawsari included, and they're drilled and lethal on the break. But prepping for a World Cup by binning your manager in April is no way to build a run. They have to nick the Uruguay opener, or they're cooked.

## Cape Verde: the fairytale that earned its ticket The Blue Sharks are the third-smallest nation by population ever to reach a World Cup, behind Iceland and fellow debutants Curacao, and they got here on merit. Pedro "Bubista" Brito, just named CAF Coach of the Year, steered them past Cameroon, beating the Indomitable Lions 1-0 and finishing four points clear at the top of the group. The squad is a diaspora project: Villarreal's Logan Costa anchors the defence as the lone top-five-league regular, 36-year-old captain Ryan Mendes is the all-time leading scorer, and Dailon Livramento, qualifying's top marksman with four, was the breakout. Survival, not a knockout berth, is the realistic ceiling. But there are no free points to be had here.

## The fixtures that decide it - Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay (15 June, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami) is the de facto play-in for second, on day one. A Saudi win and the group cracks wide open. - Uruguay vs Cape Verde (21 June, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami) asks Bielsa to convert that miserly defence into three points against debutants who don't fold easily. - Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia (26 June, NRG Stadium, Houston) looks like a straight shootout for third, and maybe a best-third place.

## The verdict Spain to top the group at a canter, Yamal or no Yamal. Uruguay second, on the back of the group's meanest defence and Bielsa's knack for big-night football. Saudi Arabia's dugout chaos and Cape Verde's thin squad leave them scrapping over the leftovers. Watch the Miami opener: lose it, and the Saudis have effectively handed the group to La Celeste before Spain have broken sweat.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic. See the methodology for how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: Spain vs Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay, Spain vs Saudi Arabia, Uruguay vs Cape Verde, Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia, Uruguay vs Spain.