Spain

Spain arrive at the 2026 World Cup as one of the tournament's genuine heavyweights, and our AI model agrees: it gives La Roja a 23.5% chance of lifting the trophy, with a 35.5% probability of reaching the final and a 50.0% chance of making the semis. Fresh off naming a 26-man squad packed with stars, Spain blend the swagger of their recent international pedigree with a generation of young talent that has the football world watching closely.

The attack is where Spain dazzle. Lamine Yamal is the jewel, the Barcelona winger contributing 16 goals and 11 assists at a superb 7.95 rating, though headlines note he is recovering from injury and working to be available for the opener — a genuine concern. Around him, Mikel Oyarzabal of Real Sociedad (15 goals, 4 assists, 7.08) offers cutting edge, while Barcelona's Ferran Torres has chipped in 16 goals. From the back, Bayer Leverkusen's Álex Grimaldo is a creative weapon, posting 8 goals and 8 assists with a 7.32 rating.

Drawn in Group H, Spain should have the quality to advance comfortably and set up a demanding knockout run. The model's numbers reflect a side built to go deep — a coin-flip to reach the semis, a clear contender for the final. The realistic verdict: a semi-final is the baseline expectation, and if Yamal is fit and firing, the title is well within reach.