Germany and the Netherlands Are Both Out — and the Title Race Just Reshuffled

Two of the strongest teams in the 2026 World Cup were knocked out on the same night, and both went down the hardest way possible — on penalties, in the Round of 32.

Germany, four-time world champions, drew 1-1 with Paraguay and then lost the shootout: Paraguay won it 4-3. A few hours apart, the Netherlands, three-time finalists, drew 1-1 with Morocco and went out 3-2 on penalties. Two of the bracket's heaviest seeds, gone in a single evening, neither beaten in 90 minutes.

That is not just drama. It rewires the math at the top.

The title race after the chaos

With Germany and the Netherlands out, here is where our model — Elo plus Dixon-Coles over 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations — now puts the contenders.

France still lead at 20.8%, comfortably clear at the top. Then it tightens: Spain at 15.9%, England at 13.3%, Brazil at 11.3% and Argentina at 11.1%, with Portugal next at 5.2%. The two eliminated giants collapse to 0% — the model locks finished results and re-simulates only what is left.

Brazil are the quiet winners

The side that gained the most without kicking a ball in those two shootouts is Brazil. They came through their own tie 2-1 over Japan, and with two of the bracket's biggest names suddenly removed, the model now rates them a genuine 11.3% to lift the trophy — fourth overall, and a 66.4% chance of reaching the quarterfinals. They have climbed from just below the European pack into it.

The romantics got a softer road — not a shorter one

This is where the model is honest in a way the highlight reels are not. Morocco beat the Netherlands and now own a genuinely inviting path: a 65.7% chance of reaching the quarterfinals, the best of anyone outside the very top tier.

But "good draw" and "title contender" are different sentences. Morocco's championship probability is still only 4.2%, and their semifinal chance 27.9%. They are nobody's favorite; they simply have the friendliest road in front of them.

The same holds for the other underdogs left standing. Paraguay, who just dumped out Germany, sit at 0.2% to win the whole thing. Canada are at 0.7%. The magic is real, and it can absolutely produce another upset or two — but the cold math still keeps the trophy with the usual names.

The takeaway

Two giants are gone, and the bracket is more open than it was 24 hours ago. But "more open" is not "wide open." France are still out front, Brazil have climbed into the conversation, and the romantic runs — Morocco, Paraguay, Canada — are exactly that: runs to enjoy, not favorites to back. The Round of 32 still has games left, and on this evidence, it is not done surprising us.