World Cup 2026 Group D preview: the USA's to lose, and why our model backs Australia over Turkey's wonderkids

Group D is the co-hosts' to lose, and everything underneath it is a scrap for second. The USA open at home with the whole tournament tilted their way. The chasing pack could not be more different: a Socceroos side built on graft and a back four that barely moves, a Turkey team carrying the most exciting young talent on the continent, and a Paraguay outfit that defends like rent is due and attacks like it would rather not. The glamour name is Turkey. Our model shrugs, and that is the call worth arguing about.

## USA: the hosts, and the right favourites Mauricio Pochettino has had a year and a half to turn a gifted but jittery group into a team, and the calendar is doing him a favour. Christian Pulisic is still the heartbeat. Folarin Balogun arrives off a 19-goal season for Monaco, the form of his life, and Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams give the spine some teeth. Plenty of this 26 went through Qatar, so the lights won't blind them. The draw helps too: three group games on home soil, SoFi in LA twice and Lumen in Seattle once, with the crowd doing real work. Pochettino can still get the team-sheet wrong and the attack can disappear for an hour, but as the only seeded side here with a settled coach and an obvious identity, they are the clear pick to win it. Anything short of top spot would be a flop.

## Australia: the model's pick for second This is the one that makes you blink. Our model has the Socceroos edging Turkey for the runner-up spot, and there is a proper football reason underneath the number. Tony Popovic took over a campaign stuck in the mud, ripped through eight games unbeaten, and sealed a sixth straight World Cup with a 2-1 win in Riyadh, Connor Metcalfe and Mitch Duke doing the damage on the night. His Australia is not built to charm anyone. It defends in a tight block, it is a nightmare to break down, and it does the boring things on time. At a tournament where second place usually goes to whoever nicks one win and keeps their nerve, that profile travels. Jackson Irvine drives the midfield, Mat Ryan steadies the back, and teenager Nestory Irankunda sits on the bench as the gamble if a game needs cracking open. The eternal over-performers know exactly what a World Cup group asks of them. Turkey have the better players. Australia have the better plan for getting out of June alive.

## Turkey: the glamour pick that keeps falling over Everybody wants to fall for this team. Arda Güler and Kenan Yildiz are box office, Hakan Çalhanoglu runs the midfield like a metronome, and Vincenzo Montella has Turkey at a World Cup for the first time since the third-place run of 2002. The football can be electric. The trouble is the wiring. This is a side that shipped six at home to Spain in qualifying, then had to grind out 1-0 wins over Romania and Kosovo in the playoffs just to be here. They can pull a big team apart on a good night and come apart at the seams on a bad one. For a young squad at a first major tournament in 24 years, that swing is the whole worry. Thrilling to watch, and a soft touch to bet against.

## Paraguay: the meanest defence, the bluntest knife Gustavo Alfaro pulled off something close to alchemy in CONMEBOL qualifying, taking a Paraguay side staring at the exit and turning it into a wall. They shipped just ten goals across the campaign, kept seven clean sheets, and knocked over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay along the way. Gustavo Gómez bosses a back line that simply does not crack. The catch lives at the other end. This is a team that wins 1-0 and draws 0-0, leaning on Miguel Almirón's legs and Antonio Sanabria's finishing without ever burying anyone. Park-the-bus football can frustrate a host and steal a point off them, but you need goals to come second, and Paraguay's floor is high while the ceiling sits low.

## The fixtures that decide it - USA vs Paraguay (12 Jun, Los Angeles) — the hosts open against the group's most stubborn defence at SoFi; a flat USA start would set the nerves jangling early. - Australia vs Turkey (13 Jun, Vancouver) — the de facto play-in for second on day two. Grit against glamour, and the whole model call rides on it. - Turkey vs USA (25 Jun, Los Angeles) — if Turkey are still breathing on the final day, this is their shot at a statement scalp against the hosts.

## The verdict USA to top the group, and with room to spare. For second I will side with the model and take Australia, not because they are the more talented side but because Popovic's grinders are built for exactly this kind of group, while Turkey's kids are one bad night from chaos. Paraguay will make everyone sweat and could mug the hosts for a point. Keep an eye on Vancouver on the 13th. That result probably writes the runner-up's name.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic — see the methodology for how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: USA vs Paraguay, Australia vs Turkey, USA vs Australia, Turkey vs Paraguay, Turkey vs USA, Paraguay vs Australia.