World Cup 2026 Group J preview: Argentina cruise, and why our model backs Austria over Algeria for second

Group J pairs the heavyweight with the hopefuls: the reigning world champions, two sides that have to graft for every point, and a country playing its first World Cup three years after gatecrashing an Asian Cup final. Argentina win this in their sleep. The argument that matters is for second, and the loud pick is not the model's pick.

## Argentina: the favourites, and it isn't close Lionel Scaloni kept the band together. Seventeen of the Qatar 2022 winners are back, Messi turns 39 during the group stage and is chasing a record sixth tournament, and behind him sit Dibu Martínez, Cristian Romero, Enzo Fernández, Mac Allister and Julián Álvarez. They won CONMEBOL qualifying outright, the most brutal road in world football, finishing top by a distance. Ángel Di María has retired and Lautaro Martínez had a stop-start club season, yet the squad is so deep it barely registers. The only thing that troubles this Argentina in a group stage is boredom. Top spot is a formality.

## Austria: the model's pick for second This is the call worth pausing on. The popular tip is the bigger football name, Algeria; the model says Ralf Rangnick's Austria, and the football case stacks up. Austria won UEFA Group H with 19 points, two clear of a serious Bosnia side, and sealed their first World Cup since 1998 with a draw in the cauldron of Zenica. Rangnick has built precisely the kind of team that survives a tournament: a vertical, relentless pressing machine, heavy with Bundesliga regulars and short on passengers. Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer give it lungs in midfield, and Marko Arnautović, the all-time top scorer on 45 goals, still offers a focal point at 36. The swing factor is David Alaba, fit again after the knee injury that wrecked his Euro 2024, back to organise a defence that conceded next to nothing in qualifying. A drilled, battle-tested European side is simply a steadier bet to grind out points than one that runs hot and cold.

## Algeria: the bigger name that blows hot and cold This is no snub. Vladimir Petković's Algeria are a genuine handful and could nick second themselves. They won CAF Group G with a single blemish, an away slip in Guinea, and Mohamed Amoura tore up African qualifying with ten goals, seven more than anyone else in the section. Riyad Mahrez, fresh off back-to-back AFC Champions League Elite titles with Al Ahli, gets a final World Cup, with Amine Gouiri, Leverkusen's Ibrahim Maza and Luca Zidane around him. The ceiling is high. The floor is the problem. These are the 2019 African champions who then went out in the group stage at two straight AFCONs, last time finishing bottom of a section behind Mauritania. That streak of no-shows is exactly why the model nudges them behind Austria. On a good night they could turn the Austrians over. The model is betting Austria has more good nights.

## Jordan: the debutants with a puncher's chance Jamal Sellami's Jordan did not come to make up numbers. This is the team that battered South Korea 2-0 in the 2023 Asian Cup semi-final before losing the final to hosts Qatar, and Musa Al-Taamari, the Rennes winger they nicknamed the Jordanian Messi, is a real threat in transition. The cruel twist was losing top scorer Yazan Al-Naimat to an ACL tear at the 2025 Arab Cup. Realistically they are chasing one upset and a best-third lottery ticket, but they are organised enough to be a nasty banana skin for whoever wants second.

## The fixtures that decide it - Argentina vs Algeria (16 June, Kansas City) — Algeria's crack at a statement scalp, and the night the group's shape starts to show. - Austria vs Jordan (16 June, San Francisco Bay Area) — Rangnick's men need three points on day one to back up the second-place case. - Algeria vs Austria (27 June, Kansas City) — almost certainly the de facto play-in for the runners-up spot, on the final matchday.

## The verdict Argentina to win it without breaking sweat. For second, take Austria: Rangnick's press, Alaba's return and that Bundesliga spine make them the steadier proposition over an Algeria team that dazzles one week and disappears the next. It is tight, and a hot Mahrez could flip it. Jordan to leave with their heads high and maybe a scalp. Circle 27 June in Kansas City.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic. See the methodology for how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: Argentina vs Algeria, Austria vs Jordan, Argentina vs Austria, Jordan vs Algeria, Algeria vs Austria, Jordan vs Argentina.