Argentina

Argentina arrive at the 2026 World Cup as reigning champions and one of the genuine favourites, with our AI model giving them a 21.6% chance of lifting the trophy again. Under Lionel Scaloni, the side retains the structure and confidence that carried them in Qatar, and the numbers reflect that pedigree: a 48.4% probability of reaching the semi-finals and a 33.5% chance of making the final. Scaloni, however, has been clear that his squad is not yet settled, telling the press he intends to "wait until the end" before finalising his selection.

The squad still revolves around Lionel Messi, whose extraordinary 35 goals and 23 assists with an 8.6 rating at Inter Miami underline that he remains the standout. Behind him there is fresh talent: Nico Paz has impressed at Como with 12 goals and six assists (7.31), Enzo Fernández brings control and an end product from Chelsea with 10 goals and four assists (7.18), and Palmeiras attacker José López adds 12 goals (7.21). The clear concern is fitness, with headlines flagging a Messi injury that could put his World Cup participation in doubt.

Drawn in Group J, Argentina should have the quality to advance comfortably and set up a demanding knockout run. With a near coin-flip shot at the last four and a third of the model's scenarios ending in the final, they are credible contenders. A semi-final is the realistic floor; whether they go further may hinge on Messi's condition.