Group L: England cruise, and why the model still backs Croatia's old guard over Ghana

Group L has a runaway leader, a grudge match on day one and a fight for second that boils down to one question: do you trust a team or a collection of names? England open against the side that knocked them out in 2018, in Dallas, with eight years of itch to scratch. Behind them, Croatia's golden generation refuses to retire and Ghana turn up mid-rebuild. The model has England all but qualified and makes Croatia, not the trendier Black Stars, its pick for second. There is a real football case for that, and it has nothing to do with romance.

England: the favourites, and they barely broke sweat

Thomas Tuchel's side qualified without conceding a single goal across their UEFA campaign, the first European nation through, sealed with games to spare. That is not a fluke stat; it is a defensive structure. The squad selection was brutal: Foden, Palmer and Alexander-Arnold all watching at home, Maguire dropped for Jarell Quansah, Ivan Toney recalled from Saudi Arabia. Kane glanced home the winner against New Zealand in the final tune-up. The only blemish was a 0-1 friendly loss to Japan, Mitoma the scorer, with Bellingham rested and half the first XI on the bench. Rice screens, Guéhi and Konsa hold the line, Saka and Bellingham carry the threat. There is no excuse here. Anything but top spot would be a scandal.

Croatia: the model's pick for second

This is the call worth chewing on, because Ghana is the sexier name. Croatia are old. Four players past 100 caps, Modric leading the line of them at 40, with Perišić, Kramarić and an injury-bruised Kovačić for company. On paper, a museum exhibit. And they are not even coming off a high: Euro 2024 was a group-stage embarrassment, three points and out. So why second? Because qualifying told a different story. Seven wins from eight, 26 scored, four conceded, a single dropped point in a goalless draw in Prague. Dalić has a settled spine, Gvardiol marshalling the back, and actual new blood in Martin Baturina, six goals at Como in his first Serie A season, and Luka Sučić. Tournament football rewards control, set-piece nous and a midfield that does not panic, and that is precisely what Croatia have hoarded across two World Cups, a 2018 final and a 2022 semi. The veterans know how to grind a group. They do not beat themselves.

Ghana: the talent is real, the foundations are rubble

The Black Stars have Antoine Semenyo, who scored ten league goals in half a season before a £64m January move to Manchester City, and Thomas Partey patrolling midfield. They also have a manager, Carlos Queiroz, parachuted in during April after Otto Addo was sacked off the back of a wretched run, the 5-1 mauling in Austria the lowest point, the final straw a 2-1 home loss to Germany. They missed the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations entirely, a first absence since 2004. And Mohammed Kudus, their best creator, is out with a muscle injury, while veteran André Ayew never made the squad. A 1-1 draw with Wales in the last warm-up convinced nobody. The ceiling to nick second is there; the cohesion to do it across three games, under a manager with weeks on the training pitch, is not.

Panama: smallest budget, biggest chip on the shoulder

Do not sleep on Los Canaleros. Thomas Christiansen has hauled Panama up to 33rd in the world, dumped the United States out of the Nations League, and qualified through CONCACAF without dropping a beat. This is a streetwise, hard-running side built around captain Aníbal Godoy, the nation's record cap-holder, and Amir Murillo. They will make life miserable for someone, most likely Ghana, but the goals are not there to finish top two.

The fixtures that decide it

- England vs Croatia (17 June, Dallas) — the 2018 semi-final rematch, and a chance for England to land a statement scalp on matchday one. - Panama vs Croatia (23 June, Toronto) — the classic banana skin for an ageing side; slip here and the cushion is gone. - Croatia vs Ghana (27 June, Philadelphia) — likely the straight shootout for second, on the final matchday.

The verdict

England to top the group at a canter, fitness permitting. Croatia to take second, not because they out-talent Ghana, but because they are a team and Ghana, right now, is a gifted squad still learning a new manager's name without its best player. Panama to play spoiler and finish third on their day. Watch the opener. Eight years of hurt are riding on it.

Our model is statistical, not prophetic. See the methodology for how the probabilities are built.

Follow the group live — odds and our model's pick for every match: England vs Croatia, Ghana vs Panama, England vs Ghana, Panama vs Croatia, Panama vs England, Croatia vs Ghana.