Croatia

Croatia arrive at the 2026 World Cup as the perennial overachievers, a nation that has punched above its weight on the biggest stage for the better part of a decade. Their squad has been confirmed for the tournament, and the headlines are dominated by one name: Luka Modric, whose presence remains the spiritual and tactical heartbeat of this side. Our AI model is more measured, assigning Croatia a 1.5% chance of lifting the trophy, with a 4.8% probability of reaching the final and a 13.1% chance of making the semi-finals — respectable numbers for a team often written off but rarely beaten early.

The attacking options give reason for cautious optimism. Petar Musa has been prolific for FC Dallas with 19 goals and six assists at a 7.38 rating, the standout club campaign in the group. Andrej Kramarić remains reliable at Hoffenheim with 14 goals and six assists, while the evergreen Ivan Perišić has reinvented himself as a creator at PSV Eindhoven, racking up 12 assists alongside seven goals. Ante Budimir adds a focal point with 17 goals at Osasuna, though his zero assists hint at a more isolated role.

Drawn in Group L, Croatia should have the experience to navigate the early rounds. The real test comes in the knockouts, where their ageing core must rely on guile over legs. Realistically, a quarter-final or semi-final run is the ceiling — a familiar but proud destination.