Croatia at the World Cup 2026: Modric's Last Dance

Croatia arrive at the 2026 World Cup the way they always seem to: underestimated on paper, but impossible to dismiss in a knockout. Zlatko Dalic, in charge since 2017 and the architect of the 2018 final run and the 2022 third-place finish, has guided the Vatreni back to the biggest stage. They qualified as winners of their UEFA group, taking seven wins and a single draw, scoring 26 and conceding just four before sealing their place with a 3-1 victory over the Faroe Islands in Rijeka in November 2025.

The story, inevitably, runs through Luka Modric. Now 40 and at AC Milan, the captain is heading to a fifth World Cup as his country's all-time appearance leader, and he recovered from a late-season facial fracture in time to make Dalic's 26. Around him sits a familiar spine: Mateo Kovacic and Josko Gvardiol of Manchester City, goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic, and attacking veterans Ivan Perisic and Andrej Kramaric, with younger names like Martin Baturina and Petar Musa pushing for minutes. It is a squad rich in tournament know-how but, in midfield, an aging one.

The draw was kind. Croatia landed in Group L alongside England, Ghana and Panama, and second place looks very achievable even if England are favored to win the pool. They open against England on June 17 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, then face Panama at Toronto's BMO Field on June 23, before closing against Ghana in Philadelphia on June 27. With the top two guaranteed a place in the Round of 32 and several third-placed sides also advancing, qualification from the group should not be in doubt.

The ceiling is where realism kicks in. This is a side built to grind through knockout football on experience and set-piece resilience rather than to overwhelm anyone, and the deeper they go, the more likely they are to meet a France, a Spain or an Argentina with younger legs. A quarter-final is a fair expectation; a fourth straight deep run is not impossible given Dalic's record in penalty shootouts and tight games. But asking 40-year-old legs to carry a title charge across seven matches in a North American summer is a stretch, and that is reflected in the numbers.

Our model gives Croatia only an outsider's chance of lifting the trophy, a long way behind front-runners Spain and Argentina, and roughly level with Colombia and Mexico. That feels right for a team whose realistic prize is another memorable run rather than the cup itself. Dig into the full team profile, see how Group L breaks down in our predictions hub, then run their path to the final yourself in the match simulator.