Türkiye at World Cup 2026: Can the Crescent-Stars Escape Group D?

Türkiye are back. After a 24-year wait, Vincenzo Montella's side ended their drought by edging the European play-offs: a 1-0 win over Romania in the semi-final, then a nervy 1-0 victory away to Kosovo in the final, settled by Kerem Aktürkoğlu in the 53rd minute. It is only the country's third World Cup appearance and the first since the golden run to third place in 2002. Getting there at all was the headline; now the question is how far this group of players can go. (qualification details)

The draw was kind. Group D pairs Türkiye with co-hosts the United States, Paraguay and Australia, and on paper it is one of the more navigable groups in the 48-team field. The Americans, playing at home, are the clear favorites to top it, which means Türkiye's realistic ambition is to grab the second automatic qualifying spot, or to bank enough points to sneak through as one of the eight best third-placed teams. The schedule helps frame it: they open against Australia on June 13 at BC Place in Vancouver, face Paraguay on June 19 at Levi's Stadium, and close against the USA on June 25 at SoFi Stadium. The opener against the Socceroos looks like the swing game. (Group D preview)

What makes Türkiye intriguing is the talent at the top of the team. Arda Güler arrives off a breakout season at Real Madrid as one of the most productive young playmakers in Europe; Kenan Yıldız carried Juventus's attack with double-digit goals and assists in Serie A; and captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu of Inter gives Montella elite passing range and a genuine set-piece weapon. Add Aktürkoğlu, Ferdi Kadıoğlu and Barış Alper Yılmaz, and this is an attack that can hurt anyone on its day. (squad details)

The caveats are just as real. Türkiye's defensive solidity has wavered through qualifying, the back line is younger and less proven than the front, and a group with a motivated host nation and a streetwise Paraguay side offers no free points. To advance, Montella's team likely needs to take care of Australia, avoid defeat against Paraguay, and treat the USA finale as a chance to play on the front foot. The ceiling is a place in the knockout rounds; talk of a deep run is, honestly, getting ahead of where this team is.

So where does that leave them in the bigger picture? Türkiye are a clear longshot for the trophy itself, the kind of side our model gives a puncher's chance to surprise rather than to win it all. But escaping Group D is a live, reasonable target. See how the bracket could break for them in our 2026 World Cup predictions, then run the group yourself in the simulator to see whether the Crescent-Stars reach the round of 32.