Argentina World Cup 2026: Can the Champions Repeat?
Defending champions, second-favourites in our model, and Messi is in the squad at 38. Here is everything pointing to a back-to-back run.
Argentina arrive at the 2026 World Cup as defending champions and one of the two clear favourites. Our AI model gives Argentina the second-best chance of lifting the trophy, behind only Spain and comfortably ahead of France and Brazil. No nation has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962, so Lionel Scaloni's side are chasing a slice of history when the tournament kicks off across the USA, Mexico and Canada on June 11.
The qualifying campaign suggested the squad is built to last. Argentina were the first South American side to book their place, sealing qualification in March 2025 with four matches to spare, and finished top of the CONMEBOL) table on 38 points from 18 games (12 wins, two draws, four defeats). That blend of continuity and depth is reflected in the final 26, which includes 17 players who lifted the trophy in Qatar, among them Rodrigo De Paul, Enzo Fernández and Julián Álvarez.
The biggest question was always Lionel Messi. At 38, he has been named in Scaloni's squad for a record sixth World Cup, a feat he shares only with Cristiano Ronaldo. His participation briefly looked in doubt after a hamstring problem picked up with Inter Miami, but Scaloni played down the concern, saying the first reports were "not that bad" with the squad's focus now on getting players to peak fitness. Argentina plan warm-up friendlies against Honduras and Iceland before the opener.
The draw in Washington on December 5 was kind. Argentina landed in Group J alongside Algeria, Austria and Jordan, a section they will be expected to win. They begin against Algeria in Kansas City on June 16, then face Austria in Dallas on June 22 before closing the group stage against Jordan, also in Dallas, on June 27. Crucially, FIFA's seeding means Argentina and Spain cannot meet before the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19, setting up a potential blockbuster finish.
So can they go back-to-back? The talent, the experience and a favourable draw all point in the right direction, but Messi's fitness and the brutal new 104-match format are real variables. Our model still rates them the second most likely champions on the planet. Dig into the full numbers in our World Cup 2026 predictions and test Argentina against any rival in the match simulator.
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