France vs Morocco, the sequel: why nobody laughs at 21% anymore

Three and a half years ago in Qatar, France ended the greatest underdog run in World Cup history, 2-0, in a semi-final Morocco still talk about. On Thursday in Foxborough they meet again, one round earlier, and almost everything around the fixture has changed. Morocco have a different coach, a deeper squad and a 34-match unbeaten run. France have a new tournament-defining forward who isn't Kylian Mbappé. And the quarter-final bracket they're fighting over has already been blown open: Norway knocked out Brazil, and Argentina needed a comeback from 0-2 to survive Egypt 3-2. Our model gave Norway 27% in that game. It gives Morocco 21.2% in this one. Nobody is laughing at numbers like that anymore.

The sequel, not the rerun

The 2022 semi-final turned on two moments: Théo Hernandez's acrobatic finish after five minutes, and Kolo Muani sliding in Mbappé's deflected shot in the 79th. Between them, Morocco — the first African and first Arab nation to reach a World Cup semi-final, having knocked out Belgium, Spain and Portugal — threw everything at France and couldn't score. That's the pattern of this whole fixture: six meetings, four French wins, two draws, and Morocco's only "win" a penalty shootout after a 2-2 friendly in 1998. Morocco have never beaten France inside 90 minutes.

But this is not the same Morocco. Walid Regragui, the face of Qatar 2022, resigned in March; the man in the dugout is Mohamed Ouahbi, the Belgium-born 49-year-old who won the 2025 U-20 World Cup and was handed the senior job three months before the tournament. His squad leans even harder into the diaspora strategy — about three-quarters of the 26 were born abroad, up from 14 in 2022 — and he made the boldest call of all, leaving out Youssef En-Nesyri, Morocco's all-time top World Cup scorer.

Morocco arrive as a better team than in 2022

It's working. Morocco went unbeaten through Group C — a 1-1 draw with Brazil, 1-0 over Scotland, then a 4-2 win over Haiti in which they trailed twice and roared back through Hakimi, Saibari, Rahimi and Yassine. In the round of 16 they took co-hosts Canada apart 3-0 in Houston, all three goals after the break: Azzedine Ounahi lashing one in from outside the box off a Hakimi free-kick lay-off, Ounahi again on the counter from Brahim Diaz's pass, then Rahimi in stoppage time.

The spine is genuinely elite now. Achraf Hakimi is Africa's reigning Player of the Year and a Champions League winner with PSG. Brahim Diaz arrived as AFCON 2025 top scorer with five goals in five games. Ounahi, the revelation of 2022, is scoring rather than just gliding. Morocco are the first African nation to reach back-to-back World Cup quarter-finals, and that 3-0 in Houston stretched a national-record unbeaten run to 34 matches in normal time. The concerns are specific: Ismael Saibari limped off after 22 minutes against Canada with a hamstring issue — scans ruled out serious damage, and Morocco are hopeful — while Chadi Riad is expected back in central defence for Redouane Halhal.

France's machine, and its last dance

France have simply won everything: five from five, 14 scored, 2 conceded. The group stage produced the tournament's individual moment so far — Ousmane Dembélé, the reigning Ballon d'Or winner, scoring a first-half hat-trick inside 32 minutes against Norway, the second-fastest treble in World Cup history behind Erich Probst in 1954, and the first by a reigning Ballon d'Or holder since Ronaldo against Spain in 2018. The round of 16 produced the grind: 1-0 over Paraguay, Mbappé converting a penalty after a VAR review for his 19th career World Cup goal and his 11th in the knockout rounds — three more than any other player in history. In the Golden Boot race he sits on 7 with Haaland, one behind Messi's 8.

There's an end-of-era weight to all of it. Didier Deschamps confirmed back in January 2025 that this is his final tournament after 14 years, a 2018 title and a 2022 final; Zidane has reportedly agreed to succeed him. The squad news is manageable rather than clean: Tchouaméni is a doubt with an abductor injury, Thuram is back in full training after missing three games and should make the bench, and Barcola, Koné and Olise are all one booking from a semi-final suspension — the FFF has asked FIFA to rescind Olise's card from the Paraguay game.

A home game 3,000 miles from home

Whatever the team sheets say, the atmosphere belongs to Morocco. The diaspora has turned this tournament into a rolling home fixture — drums, chants and red-and-green flags from Times Square to Boston Common — even as many fans from Morocco itself were shut out: the national team's supporters' association had 40 of its 42 US visa applications rejected, with no clear reasons given. In Paris, the Grand Rex is putting the match on its giant screen, and Moroccan associations in France have been at pains to say that supporting Morocco doesn't mean rejecting France. Deschamps, for his part, called Morocco "one of the best teams in the world" and said their run "is no coincidence."

One more layer of edge: Argentina's Facundo Tello has the whistle, an appointment that has drawn backlash amid Morocco's lingering grievances over the officiating in 2022.

What the model sees

Our model — Elo ratings feeding a Dixon-Coles goal model, run through Monte Carlo — makes it France 51.7%, draw 27.1%, Morocco 21.2% over 90 minutes. The Elo gap is real: France sit at 2009, Morocco at 1874. Zoom out and France are effectively co-favourites for the whole thing at 22.5%, a hair behind Spain's 22.6%, with England (20.2%), Argentina (19.2%) and, remarkably, Norway (4.9%) behind them. Morocco's title number is 4.2% — roughly where Norway stood before they put Brazil out.

Worth noting: our 21.2% is warmer on Morocco than the markets, where Kalshi has them at just 15% in regulation. The model isn't sentimental — it just weighs a defence that has conceded four goals in five games and a side that hasn't lost in 34.

The honest read: France are clear favourites and should win, most likely by a single goal again, exactly as in 2022 until the late second. But a 27.1% draw probability is the quiet headline — Morocco's most realistic path runs through 90 goalless-adjacent minutes, a raucous "home" crowd, and the lottery beyond. Ask Spain how that ended in 2022. A France win is the call. It is not a foregone conclusion, and this tournament keeps punishing anyone who treats 21% as zero.