Morocco Has the 2nd-Best Odds to Reach the Quarterfinals — Ahead of Brazil, England and Argentina

Here is the single most surprising number our model is producing right now. Of every team still alive in the 2026 World Cup, the one with the second-best odds of reaching the quarterfinals is not Brazil, not England, not Argentina, not Spain. It is Morocco.

The model gives Morocco a 65.2% chance to reach the last eight. Only France, at 84.6%, is higher. England sit at 63.0%, the USA at 62.0%, Brazil at 61.3%, Argentina at 60.0%, and Spain — a 15.6% title favorite — trail the group at 56.3%.

Read that again. A team the model ranks seventh for the title, at just 4.0% to win it all, has better quarterfinal odds than four of the pre-tournament favorites. That is not a glitch. It is the whole point of knockout football: the road matters as much as the roster.

Why the model loves Morocco's road

Two things drive the number, and neither is "Morocco are secretly the second-best team in the world."

The first is that Morocco already cleared the hardest obstacle in their half. They knocked out the Netherlands in the Round of 32, winning on penalties after a 1-1 draw — eliminating the strongest seed in their quarter, and they are the 2022 semifinalists, so it was no ambush. With the Dutch gone, the wall in front of Morocco got a lot shorter.

The second is the draw itself. Morocco's Round of 16 opponent is Canada, a side the model rates as a clear underdog. Win that, and the quarterfinal comes against the survivor of a sub-bracket whose heavyweights — the Netherlands and Germany — are already out. Add it up and Morocco's path to the last eight is, by some distance, the friendliest of any serious side. That is where 65.2% comes from: not dominance, a soft and survivable road.

The catch: a great draw is not a trophy

Here is the honest other half, the part the highlight reels skip.

Morocco's numbers collapse after the last eight. The model gives them 27.5% to reach the semifinal, 10.9% to reach the final, and just 4.0% to win the whole thing — seventh among the survivors, behind France, Spain, England, Brazil and Argentina. Why the drop? Because a deep run eventually meets the teams the draw spared them from earlier. France (24.4% to win it), Spain (15.6%) and England (13.0%) are still the model's real trophy threats, and Morocco would likely have to beat one of them to lift the cup.

So both things are true at once, and they do not cancel. Morocco have the second-best quarterfinal odds of anyone left, and only the seventh-best title odds. The first number is a gift from the bracket. The second is the model reminding you that a gift can only carry you so far.

The takeaway

Morocco are 2022 semifinalists, they beat the Netherlands on merit, and they now hold the easiest route to the last eight of any contender. Believe in the quarterfinal — the model does, more than it believes in Brazil's or England's. Just don't confuse the best draw in the tournament with the best team in it. In a knockout, the road is half the battle. It is not the whole war.