Iraq at the World Cup 2026: 40 years later, the group of death

Iraq are back at a World Cup for the first time since Mexico 1986, and the way they got there could hardly have been more dramatic. They were the very last team to book a place, the 48th and final qualifier, beating Bolivia 2-1 in the inter-confederation play-off final at the Estadio BBVA near Monterrey on 31 March 2026. Aymen Hussein's 53rd-minute strike was literally the last goal of the entire global qualifying campaign. For a football-obsessed nation of more than 40 million, a 40-year drought is over. You can track their full story on our Iraq team page.

The road there was a grind. Under Australian coach Graham Arnold, who took the job in mid-2025 and called it "one of the toughest jobs in the world," Iraq finished as runners-up in their AFC fourth-round group, then edged the United Arab Emirates 3-2 on aggregate in the AFC fifth round (a 1-1 draw followed by a 2-1 win). As the higher-ranked side in their play-off bracket they were seeded straight into the final against Bolivia, and held their nerve. Arnold became the first Australian to steer two different nations to a men's World Cup.

The draw, however, was merciless. Group I pairs Iraq with reigning finalists France, an Africa-topping Senegal and an Erling Haaland-led Norway returning to the big stage. It is, by almost any measure, the group of death, and our model treats Iraq as a rank outsider not only for the title but for survival in the group itself. The realistic target is the round of 32: in the 48-team format the top two of each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams, so even a third-place finish could be enough with the right results.

There is quality to build around. Captain and goalkeeper Jalal Hassan recently became Iraq's 15th centurion. Luton Town's Ali Al-Hamadi opened the scoring against Bolivia, Hussein is a proven regional finisher, and Manchester United-schooled midfielder Zidane Iqbal gives Arnold a passer of genuine class. Iraq begin against Norway on 16 June at Gillette Stadium, before facing France in Philadelphia on 22 June and Senegal in Toronto on 26 June. Realistically, that opener may be their best chance of three points.

Can the Lions of Mesopotamia spring the upset? See how our model rates every Group I scenario in the 2026 World Cup predictions, and run Iraq through France, Senegal and Norway yourself in the simulator.