World Cup 2026 Dark Horses Our Model Loves
Spain and Argentina lead the odds, but four outsiders punch above their reputation. Here is why Morocco, Colombia, Croatia and Japan are worth a second look.
Every World Cup has a story written by a team nobody picked, and 2026 will be no different. Our AI model has Spain and Argentina as the clear front two to lift the trophy on July 19, but the more interesting numbers sit further down the board. Four sides land in the model's outsider tier yet carry pedigree, depth or a draw that flatters them: Morocco, Colombia, Croatia and Japan. Here is the case for each, and why the model rates them above their public reputation.
Morocco are the obvious one. The Atlas Lions became the first African nation to reach a World Cup semifinal in Qatar 2022, knocking out Spain and Portugal along the way, and they arrive in North America as Africa's highest-ranked team. Captain Achraf Hakimi just won the Champions League with PSG, and the spine of that history-making run is still intact. The catch is the draw: Morocco share Group C with Brazil, Scotland and Haiti, so survival means navigating a five-time champion first. Even so, their standing is no fluke — this is a side built for knockout football.
Colombia are the South American value pick. Los Cafeteros finished third in the brutal CONMEBOL qualifiers with 28 points, above Uruguay and Brazil, and reached the 2024 Copa América final, losing to Argentina only in extra time. With captain James Rodríguez orchestrating and Luis Díaz cutting in from the left, Colombia have a clear identity. A Group K with Portugal, DR Congo and Uzbekistan is testing but far from closed, which is exactly why the model keeps them in the outsider conversation.
Croatia refuse to fade, and Japan refuse to be ignored. Croatia — 2018 runners-up and 2022 third place — open against England in Group L with Luka Modrić, now 40, chasing a fifth World Cup; their tournament-time knack for grinding out results keeps them in the outsider tier despite an aging core. Japan sit just below them after becoming the first nation outside the hosts to qualify, beating Bahrain in March and conceding just three goals across qualifying. They beat Germany and Spain in 2022 and drew a workable Group F with the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia — though the loss of the injured Kaoru Mitoma stings.
Dark horses are where prediction gets fun, and where the numbers matter most. Want to see how far each of these outsiders could actually run? Dig into our full World Cup 2026 predictions, then test your own bracket against the data in our match simulator.
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