Sweden at the World Cup 2026: Can Blågult Survive Group F?

There is no polite way to say it: Sweden almost did not make it to the World Cup. They finished dead last in UEFA qualifying Group B behind Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia, without winning a single match. Their lifeline was the Nations League playoff path, earned by topping their third-tier group, and they grabbed it. Viktor Gyökeres struck a hat-trick in a 3-1 semi-final win over Ukraine in Valencia on March 26, then scored an 88th-minute winner in a frantic 3-2 final against Poland in Solna to seal a first World Cup since 2018.

The turnaround came under Graham Potter, the former Brighton and Chelsea manager who knows Sweden intimately from his seven years building Östersund. Appointed in October 2025 to rescue a sinking campaign, he switched to a back three, got his side organised, and was rewarded with a contract extension to 2030 before the playoffs even began. The talent was always there; what changed was the structure around it.

Up front, the squad is genuinely frightening on paper. Liverpool's Alexander Isak and Arsenal's Viktor Gyökeres give Sweden two elite center-forwards, with Anthony Elanga adding pace down the flank. The worry is everything behind them: this is an aging, thin spine that conceded too easily in qualifying, and Tottenham's Dejan Kulusevski is a major absence after surgery. Sweden score goals, but they leak them too.

The draw was unkind. Group F pairs them with the Netherlands, a genuine contender, plus a fast, technical Japan side and a stubborn, well-drilled Tunisia. Sweden open against Tunisia on June 14, face the Dutch on June 20, then meet Japan on June 25. Realistically the second qualifying spot is a three-way fight with Japan and Tunisia, and even a best third-placed finish is in play in the 48-team format. The opener against Tunisia may decide everything.

Our model treats Sweden as a clear longshot for the trophy itself, but a live outsider to reach the round of 32 if Isak and Gyökeres click early. See where Blågult rank in our 2026 predictions, and run the Group F permutations yourself in the match simulator.