Japan at the World Cup 2026: A Dark Horse in Group F

Japan arrive at the 2026 World Cup carrying the swagger of the side that toppled Germany and Spain in Qatar, but also a fresh wound. Head coach Hajime Moriyasu, in charge since 2018 and now leading the nation to a second straight tournament, named his squad on 15 May without two of his most dangerous attackers: left-winger Kaoru Mitoma and forward Takumi Minamino, both ruled out by injury. As Mitoma's deputy, Real Sociedad's Takefusa Kubo, put it, the right-winger now carries his teammate's hopes with "an even greater sense of responsibility," per Al Jazeera.

Even without Mitoma, this is arguably Japan's deepest pool ever. Liverpool's Wataru Endo captains a midfield that also features Crystal Palace's Daichi Kamada and Leeds United's Ao Tanaka, while Kubo, Ritsu Doan (Eintracht Frankfurt) and Daizen Maeda (Celtic) supply pace on the flanks. Parma's Zion Suzuki has emerged as first-choice goalkeeper, and the defence leans on Ajax pair Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ko Itakura plus Bayern Munich's Hiroki Ito. The form line is genuinely eye-catching: since the last World Cup, Japan have beaten Germany, Spain and Brazil, and edged England 1-0 at Wembley in March.

The reward for all that promise is the so-called group of death. In Group F, Japan open against the Netherlands on 14 June at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, then travel to Estadio BBVA in Monterrey to face Tunisia on 20 June, before closing back in Arlington against Sweden on 25 June. The Dutch are the clear favourites to top the pool, which leaves Japan, Sweden and Tunisia scrapping for the second automatic spot, with one of the best third-place berths as a safety net.

A realistic ceiling? The Japan Football Association has publicly set a quarterfinal as the explicit target, and that would be historic. Japan have reached the Round of 16 four times - in 2002, 2010, 2018 and 2022 - but have never advanced to the last eight, falling on penalties to Croatia last time out. The expanded 48-team bracket gives them more margin, but the knockout road is unforgiving: a likely last-16 tie against a Group E heavyweight, then a quarterfinal that could pit them against a title contender. Beating that wall is the whole story of the next month for the Samurai Blue.

That context is exactly why our model lists Japan as a long-shot dark horse to lift the trophy - respectful of the talent, honest about the draw, and a long way behind front-runners Spain and Argentina. We think the Round of 16 is the floor and a maiden quarterfinal the realistic prize. See the full picture in our World Cup 2026 predictions, then test Japan's route yourself in the match simulator.